The faulty reasoning behind progressive betting

By Alan Vaughn

In my time at the tables I have seen a lot of players that claim to have a winning system. I have even read books by authors claiming that their “system” is a guide to riches. Unfortunately, many of these systems do more harm than good. The most popular losing system used today is called progressive betting.

A progressive system is where a player increases the size of their bet after a win. There are several potential thoughts behind this faulty system: some players are willing to bet more when they are using the casino’s money, others hope that they will go on a winning streak and make more money with the increased bet.

As I talked about in the last issue, it is impossible to predict a streak, so increasing your bet for this reason is nothing more than wishful thinking. Raising your bet after a win because you are using the “casino’s money” is also a poor excuse. If I approached you on the street and handed you $100, you wouldn’t put it in your pocket and consider it to be my money. Regardless of where the money comes from, it belongs to you the second that you receive it. I find it interesting that so many people are willing to take excessive risks with profits made at a casino. I assure you that the casino will not extend you the same courtesy when they take your money.

There are many different types of progressive systems but they all consist of a betting pattern and a trigger. Most progressive betting patterns follow a set structure such as 1-2-3-1, 1-2-4-8, 1-2-1, etc. Progressive systems also have many different triggers: increase your bet after a win, increase after two wins, increase after a blackjack, etc.

The problem is that no combination of patterns or triggers can lead to an advantage over the house. Using one of the betting patterns only serves to increase your risk relative to a player that flat bets, and using one of the triggers only encourages you to look for patterns that don’t exist.

In the game of blackjack the chances of winning a random hand are about 43%, the chances of losing a random hand are about 49% (with ties making up the remaining percentages). While there are certainly factors that can change these percentages, using a predetermined betting pattern coupled with a trigger based on this type of criteria does nothing to benefit the player. If anything the added risk from increasing your bets and the false sense of security in a faulty system causes the player to lose considerably more in the long run.

The reason that so many players swear by these types of systems is that superstitious players often suffer from selective memory. With a progressive system, this either manifests itself in the form of only remembering the sessions where they were lucky enough to make money or remembering all of times where they “could have made” a bunch of money if they had increased their bets during a lucky session.

In the process they conveniently forget the instances where they lost more money than they should have or the times where they saved money by not increasing their bets. These players will tell you about all of the times that they hit it big – and often make it sound very appealing – but the fact remains that these types of systems do not work. Often they will have good intentions, and many of these players strongly believe in the product that they are selling, but ultimately progressive systems only serve to increase your risk at the tables.

Alan Vaughn has played high stakes blackjack for several years in casinos all across the US. He recently moved to Denver where he teaches blackjack to players of all skill levels. For questions, comments, or information on lessons please email denver21school@yahoo.com.