Separate side-bet decisions from hand

By Alan Vaughn

Side bets at the blackjack table allow you to bet on various aspects of the game ranging from the number of player wins to whether or not the dealer will bust. These bets are different from wagers like splitting or doubling down because they have no impact on the outcome of the hand.

Side bets can be difficult to win but they often carry large payouts. These bets also carry a casino advantage much larger than the game of blackjack. In fact, most of these bets are among the worst bets offered by the casino.

One well-known side bet is called “insurance,” which is offered when the dealer’s up card is an ace. The player can bet up to half of their initial wager and they get paid 2 to 1 if the dealer’s down card is a 10. The casino advantage on this bet averages between 7% and 8% but can vary significantly depending on the number of tens remaining in the deck.

There are two traps that players fall in when they decide whether or not to take insurance. Some players think that they can predict when the dealer will have blackjack based on a short history at the table. Don’t fall into this trap. The dealer can easily have 5 or 6 blackjacks or non-blackjacks in a row. If you start to see patterns where they don’t exist, you will end up giving the casino your money.

Other players only take insurance when they have a strong starting hand. The logic behind this is that they will probably win money either way. Unfortunately, since the insurance side-bet has no bearing on the outcome of the hand, these players are simply creating an excuse to throw their money away. The correct decision is simple: don’t take insurance.

A variation of insurance is called “even money.” If you are dealt a blackjack and the dealer has an ace showing you are allowed to win your initial wager instead of holding on in hopes of being paid 3 to 2. While taking insurance is widely viewed as a “sucker bet,” taking even money on blackjack does not carry that same stigma.

To prove that these bets are the same, let’s look at an example. If you bet $10, receive a blackjack, and pay $5 for insurance you will win $10 in the event of a dealer blackjack (“pushing” your original wager) and you will lose $5 if the dealer does not have a blackjack (but win $15 on your original wager). Either way you will win $10 or even money.

Meanwhile if you don’t take insurance you will win $15 approximately nine times out of 13 and push four times out of 13 for an average win of about $10.40. So while even-money often looks like a no-lose situation, on average you will lose 4% of your initial bet every time you take it. Note that 4% of your initial bet is the same 8% house advantage since your insurance wager is half the size of your initial bet.

For the average player there is no correct way to play the insurance side bet. Your best bet is to avoid it and save your money. Even money traps many players into thinking they are in a no-lose situation, but these players are giving up the same amount of equity as players that take insurance. Since side bets have no impact on the outcome of the hand, you must view them as a separate decision and act accordingly. It doesn’t matter if you have blackjack, a 20, or a 4; you will lose the same amount of money either way.

- Alan Vaughn has played high stakes blackjack for several years in casinos all across the U.S. He recently moved to Denver where he teaches blackjack to players of all skill levels. For questions, comments, or information on lessons please email denver21school@yahoo.com.