Looking for an edge? Take comps into account

By John G

There’s only a handful of casino games in which the player can get an edge. Start with blackjack for card counters, video poker at certain pay, craps for a select few dice controllers. Add in live poker for those more skilled and disciplined than their opponents, and sports and racing betting for serious handicappers. That’s about it.

But there are opportunities to play on the positive side if you take into account the value of cash back, free play, room and meal comps and other perks. If you’re playing 9-6 Jacks or Better, which returns 99.5 percent with expert play, and get a couple of tenths of percent back in free play in the casino plus direct-mail vouchers, it doesn’t take many free lunches to get you above break-even.

That’s the situation I found in mid-July when I visited a casino with a particularly good deal for older players. As a member of the over-50 brigade, I took note of the sign detailing an offer for a free breakfast or lunch buffet for any over-50 player who earned at least 10 player rewards points on that gaming day.

I was at the casino, planned to spend several hours, and was going to eat sometime during the day. It wasn’t an expensive buffet – only $6.99 for breakfast or $9.99 for lunch. But free is always the right price.

My first move was to check the quarter, single-hand video poker games. There were several 25-centers that hovered around 99-percent payback with expert play. There was 9-6 Jacks or Better, which returns 99.5 percent with expert play, along with 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker (99.1 percent) and 25-15-9-4-4 Deuces Wild (98.9), the game players sometimes call “Illinois Deuces” or “Airport Deuces.”

I settled in at a 9-6 Jacks or Better game. This was the first high-paying video poker game, the game that sparked video poker’s popularity explosion in the 1980s. By today’s standards, it’s a little tame. There are no big bonuses on four of a kind. With five coins wagered, any set of quads pays 125 coins, a far cry from the 800 on four Aces, 400 on four 2s through 4s or the 250 on other four of a kinds on the Double Bonus game.

But it pays 2-for-1 on two pairs, while two-pair hands on Double Bonus just gets you your money back. That leaves a low-volatilty, even-keel game that’s perfect for a little comp chasing.

When I settled in for a little Jacks or Better, I found I was getting one point for every $8 wagered. That meant I’d need to play 64 hands and wager $80 to accumulate 10 points for the buffet. At 99.5 percent return, my expected average loss on $80 in play was 40 cents.

That didn’t mean it was going to cost me precisely 40 cents for the buffet. I could have won money in the session, maybe even drawn a royal flush for $1,000. I could have lost a $20 bill, or even more. Those winning and losing sessions over time balance out to an average 40-cent loss per $80 wagered.

My session started off like it was going to be a loser. I bought in for $20, and it was 18 hands before I drew anything better than a high pair. By then, I was down to 30 credits. But I made a one-card draw for a flush, and a few hands later drew a full house. I was up to 95 quarters, then played down to my original buy-in before cashing out.

I had my $20 back, and I had my lunch, too. To me, that’s a winning play.

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Q&A

Q. Is there any advantage to playing blackjack head-to-head with the dealer instead of at a full table?

A. Only if you’re a card counter and have a mathematical edge on the house. Fewer players mean more hands per hour, and that favors whoever has the edge. Most of us are better off at a full table with fewer hands per hour and fewer chances for the house edge to work against us.

Q. Can you explain how comps work. I lost about $150 the last time I played, and got the same offers I did after the trip before, when I won about $60.

A. Most casino comps are how much the casino expects to win from you given the games you play, your average bet size and your playing time, rather than the amount you actually win or lose. Casino operators know that over time, the mathematical edge on games will hold up. If you win, they don’t want to deny you comps. They want to reward you at the level of your play in hopes of turning you into a loyal customer who will come back and let the house edge work against you again.

Let’s say you play roulette at a busy table where the casino knows the wheel is spinning about 40 times per hour. You stay for a couple of hours, and wager about $10 per spin. At $10 per spin at 80 spins per hour, you risk $800. The house edge is 5.26 percent, meaning in an average session, you’ll lose about $42. Regardless of whether you actually win $50, lose $100 or any other result, the casino will base your comps on that $42 average.

Other factors are weighed, especially for direct-mail vouchers designed to bring you back to casinos. Repeat play is important to casinos. A customer who comes every week will see more, better offers in the mail than one who plays twice a year. But the starting point is your theoretical loss rather than your actual results. If the casino knows it’s getting a shot at your money, it wants you to come back.

- John Grochowski has covered the casino industry for 15 years in newspapers and magazines, and is the author of six books on casino games. Readers can email him at casinoanswerman@casinoanswerman.com.