Look for progress in world of online poker

By Mark Lasser

Happy 2012 everyone. I’m predicting this is the year where we will see some progress in the world of online poker. Last year was pretty darn bad for online players in the U.S. and I think two things will happen this year (with the qualifier that I think they’ll happen late into 2012).

First, I think Full Tilt Poker will be operational again and will start to pay back some of the players that had money frozen in their system before they were shut down by the U.S. Department of Justice. Second, I think Nevada will see some type of online poker legislation that will make playing legal for their residents, and other states will follow suit if for no other reason than they will be afraid of the taxable revenue losses.

Looking forward to seeing if I’m right. I welcome anyone who wants to write in on the topic or if you have other predictions.

I also wanted to get in a poker topic to start the year. I played a live cash game last week and was up against a pretty solid player who was also propping at Golden Gates. (Proposition players are on the casino payroll, but play with their own cash. They can’t choose their table or game but they may receive benefits from the casino.) I had played some middle suited connectors on impulse, which is almost always a bad idea. The table was ridiculously loose-passive though and I wanted to see if I could outplay some of the table post flop.

The flop came with an Ace and 2 small card. I was isolated against the prop player, who I thought was a solid enough player that I could try a move to win the hand on a bluff. My plan was to call his flop bet and min-raise any turn bet, regardless of the turn card. He made a small bet and I did call. The turn brought a blank and I had nothing. Not even a draw and even pairing up probably wouldn’t help me.

So I min-raised his bet and he went into the tank. A min raise is simply a doubling of the bet, as that is the minimum raise allowed. After thinking and trying to get more info from me, he eventually mucked showing an Ace. I considered showing the bluff, but decided against it – the player was on my right and I didn’t want to deal with him ramping up aggression on me if he got tilted.

So the question is, why a min raise here vs. either a flat call chase or a big bet bluff? I like it because it creates confusion in my opponent and is not very risky in case you run into a monster.

The range of hands you could have when making this bet is basically everything, so it’s hard to narrow down to make an evaluation. If the original bettor has a huge hand, he might raise back and I can muck. If he has a weak hand like AT, then he has to figure I have, A) a huge hand like top set, B) top two pair, or C) a stone cold bluff. Huge range, right?

The dilemma for him is that the bet looks like it’s begging for action through either a re-raise or a call and trap on the river. Unless he can put me on the bluff, the risk outweighs the reward, and if I’m not bluffing he has to figure he’s beat. Even if the min raise is called, the bluff attempt costs the least amount of chips possible and doesn’t have to work that often to be profitable.

Mark B. Lasser is Denver writer and international poker player. He regularly plays in Colorado, Arizona, California, Missouri and Nevada. You can hear him talk about gambling and casinos every Friday at 5 PM on KEZW AM 1430. Readers can send questions and comments to him at ColoradoPokerMark@comcast.net.