Guaranteed win? Don’t bet on it

By John Grochowski

If someone guaranteed they could make you a winner at casino games, what would you do?

I¹ll tell you what I’d do. I’d put my hands in my pockets and walk swiftly in the other direction. In the 15 years I’ve been covering the casino industry, and in more than two decades as a player, I’ve had people trying to sell me more worthless systems to beat slot machines, roulette and other games than I can count.

The only guarantees in gambling are the odds and percentages, and mostly they’re working against you. A few knowledgeable, hard-working souls can shift the percentages – card counters in blackjack, those who play expert strategy at certain video poker games, dice controllers at craps. All of those take knowledge, discipline, bankroll, and practice, practice, practice.

So I’m not going to guarantee you I can make you a winner. What I can do is guide you through the odds and percentages, the best bets and the worst bets, toward the good strategies and away from the bad. Add that up and you have a little casino survival kit, one that can help minimize losses, extend playing time and have more fun on your day in the casino.

There’s plenty more to casino fun than odds and strategies, of course. In the coming months, I’ll explore player rewards cards, review books and softwares, share tales of trips, jackpots and stories swapped across the tables and through e-mail.

If you have questions, comments or ideas as to what this column should cover, please don’t hesitate to email me at casinoanswerman@casinoanswerman.com. I can’t guarantee I’ll get back to everyone, but I always appreciate input.

Since you asked
For starters, let’s take a quick stroll through some of the things I’m most frequently asked.

Q: How can you tell when a slot machine is ready to pay off?
A: You can’t. Slot machines results are determined by a program called a “random number generator” and are as random as humans can program a computer to be. Past results don’t affect future outcome.
If the RNG is programmed so that you have a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning the top jackpot, you have the same 1 in 10,000 chance on every pull. If you’ve gone 9,999 pulls without hitting the jackpot, or just hit it on the last play, the odds are still 1 in 10,000 on the next. The exact number is just an example – some slot machines pay off their top jackpots more frequently, some much less.

Q: What game has the lowest house edge?
A: That depends on both the skill and bankroll of the player. A blackjack player who studies and applies basic strategy narrows the house edge to about half a percent, a few tenths of a percent more or less depending on house rules. The basic strategy player will average about 50 cents in losses per $100 wagered, and has a reasonable shot to win in any session. A craps player backing a pass line bet with triple odds also narrows the house edge to less than half a percent, with more odds cutting that edge even more.
Many of you don’t know blackjack basic strategy, and might not know what craps triple odds means. Don’t worry about it. We’ll get into that in the coming months. Meantime, one casino game that has a low house edge and requires no strategy at all is baccarat. Your only decision is whether to bet on the banker hand or the player hand, and draws are made according to set rules. 
The house edge is 1.09 percent if you bet on banker and 1.24 percent if you bet on player. By comparison, the house edge is about 2 to 2.5 percent against an average blackjack player, 5.26 percent on most roulette bets, and up to 16.67 percent on the worst bets at craps.

Q: Say another player hits a big jackpot right after you’ve left a slot machine. Would you have had the big win if you’d stayed?
A: Probably not. The random number generator runs through dozens of numbers a second, even when the machine is not in use. Your timing would have to be exactly right, down to the split second, to have the same results as the other player.

Q: Is it better to play tables than slots?
A: That depends on what you want out of the games. Table games generally have lower house edges than slot machines. Play is also far faster on the slots, exposing you to that house edge over many more plays per hour. However, enough players like the ease of slot play, the entertainment factor and the chance to chase big jackpots that slots are by far the most popular games in the casinos.

Q: Does using a player rewards card hurt your chance of winning?
A: No. The random number generator on electronic games doesn’t know whether you’re using a rewards card. I always use one. I don’t recommend playing extra for the sake of the comps and perks that come with rewards cards use, but why not take the extras that come with your normal amount of play?

—John Grochowski has covered the casino industry for 15 years in newspapers and magazines, and is the author of six books on casino games. Readers can email him at casinoanswerman@casinoanswerman.com.