Expecting to lose not the right mindset at table

By Mark Lasser

I hadn’t played poker at the Lady Luck Casino in a while and thought I’d stop in to see the new poker room digs. The good news is Sunday night had lively games with three tables going until about 11 p.m. and then two reasonably full tables after that.

The new room is a section of the upstairs casino paired with a selection of machines. This is nicer than the basement, but the popcorn machine is gone, which is kind of a bummer. Players were a mixed bag, with some regulars I had seen in other poker rooms and some casual players looking for a good time. At least on Sunday, they were spreading 1-2-10 at all three tables.

The game I sat in on was fairly easy to read: a few tight players, but mostly loose action looking to see cheap flops and get a few miracle cards. It wasn’t uncommon to see Ax off suits limping in or even raising from early position, and folks staying in to the river with under pairs hoping to spike a long-shot set.

In one hand, I was dealt AK in the big blind. Under the gun I limped in for 2 bucks and there was only one caller to me, so I bumped it to $12 and was successful in isolating the other early position player who just called. The flop brought an A-T-6 with mixed suits, so I bet out the maximum of $10 and was called, so I figured the player had a weak ace or a 10. Turn was a 3, so a good blank and again I bet and was called for $10. When the river brought an 8, I figured I was solid with no flush or straights. And since there had been no re-raising, I wasn’t afraid of sets or two pair. I bet the same $10 and he re-raised another $10.

Now, with an experienced player, I’d have been concerned about being slow-played, but I knew this player was recreational so I called to see his A8 off. OK, no problem. Guy got lucky.

A few minutes later after making some small talk I asked him what he had thought I had, and he told me he thought I had a 10 or an ace. In the next hour, I wound up taking him heads up about four times for around $125, and he made a comment about how I always beat him heads up. I reminded him of the A8 and he acknowledged the hand. Of course, now that I knew how he was playing, it was easy to get him to continue chasing long shots, and for the rest of that hour he kept missing.

And then something interesting happened. He told me that when one gambles, one has to expect to lose. Hmm. Well, that’s certainly not what I think when I sit down, but it’s very good that other players are thinking that. To be profitable, it helps to have players who are thinking they’ll play until they lose some set amount of money. In all likelihood, their expectation will be met.

If they play thinking they’ll eventually lose $200, that’s exactly what will happen. Taking shots at poor draws won’t deter them since they are there to gamble and have a good time. I even saw a few players at the table call bets with an ace high when four flush cards were on the board. That’s a fun game to be in.

Now, you read this column, so I know you don’t play that way. When you play, I hope you go in expecting to win, or if you are playing negative expectation games, you are expecting to lose small amounts. Never sit down at a poker table expecting to lose. If that’s your mindset going in, play something else or wait until you’re feeling more positive. A full table has nine people trying to beat you. Don’t ever be the 10th.

Mark B. Lasser is Denver writer and international poker player. He regularly plays in Colorado, Arizona, California, Missouri and Nevada. You can hear him talk about gambling and casinos every Friday at 5 PM on KEZW AM 1430. Readers can send questions and comments to him at ColoradoPokerMark@comcast.net.