Don’t pass on doubling opportunities

By Alan Vaughn

If you could start with any two cards in the game of blackjack, what would they be? The obvious answer is an Ace and a 10, but what would be your second choice? I think that if you eliminate a blackjack, most players would choose to be dealt a 20. While this is a great choice, I would personally prefer to sit at a table where I am dealt a 10 or an 11 on every hand. Part of this is because I really enjoy doubling down, but the other part is because doubling on a 10 or an 11 in the right situations presents a unique opportunity.

In previous articles I have mentioned that doubling down decreases your chances of winning a hand. In exchange for this decreased likelihood of winning you are able to put more money on the table at a positive expectation, and over the long run you will win more than if you had not doubled.

The exception to this rule is when a 10 or an 11 is doubled against a dealer’s 4-6. In these situations not only are you allowed to bet twice as much as you normally would, but your chances of winning the hand stay the same. This makes for some of the most profitable situations in the game.

Against a dealer’s 2 or 3 your odds are almost as good. In these scenarios your chances of winning the hand only decrease slightly, meaning that you are still an overwhelming favorite if you double. I have seen players that avoid doubling against a 2 or a 3 out of fear that the dealer won’t bust, but your hand is strong enough that you don’t need to rely on the dealer to win. Just buckle in and put down the extra chips.

To make things even better, 10s and 11s can hold their own against even stronger dealer holdings. Tens should be doubled against all dealer values other than a 10 or an Ace, while an 11 should be doubled against everything but an Ace. In these situations your chances of winning the hand will go down much more than when the dealer holds a bust card, but you are still in a great spot and it is in your best interest long-term to put more money on the table.

With each hand only receiving one card, the starting values of 10 and 11 each have about a 40% chance of making a 20 or 21. When this is combined with the chances of a dealer bust (about 30% on average) you stand a great chance of either making a solid hand or watching the dealer jump to 22+.

I am never disappointed to receive an Ace or a 10 as my first card because mathematically that gives me an advantage over most dealer holdings, but I also know that if I am dealt two little cards there is a good chance that I will have the best of it. If I could play at a table where I kept drawing cards that totaled 10 and 11 I would have a smile on my face all day long. I can wait to draw my Ace or 10 until after I have doubled.

Alan Vaughn has played high stakes blackjack for several years in casinos all across the US. He recently moved to Denver where he teaches blackjack to players of all skill levels. For questions, comments, or information on lessons please email denver21school@yahoo.com.