Bet big and go home (broke)

By Alan Vaughn

Have you ever wondered why you lose so much money at blackjack when the house edge is supposedly so small? For most players this problem is a result of over-betting.

While the amount that you bet does not change the math behind the game of blackjack, it is one of the easiest ways to give the casino more money than they deserve. Let’s look at an example.

So that the information in this column can be applied to a buy-in of any size I am going to refer to the bets in units. To figure out the number of units that you use, simply divide your buy-in (the amount you take to the tables) by the size of your average bet. A $100 buy-in divided by a $5 average bet would be 20 units, a $60 buy-in divided by a $10 average bet would be 6 units, etc.)

You sit at a table and buy-in for $100 with the intent of playing 100 hands (between an hour or two for most players). If you were to flat bet $5 the entire time and use perfect basic strategy, you should mathematically lose about $2.50. At a $10 bet you should lose about $5, and at a $25 bet you should lose about $12.50. Of course, these amounts are averages, but in the long run that is about where you should end up. Now let’s looks at the chances of losing the entire $100 in 100 hands (or less). When flat betting $5 (20 units) the probability is 8.65%; for $10 (10 units) the probability is 39.59%; and for $25 (4 units) the probability of losing your entire buy-in is 73.72%. Again, this is all based on playing perfect strategy. If you do not play perfect basic strategy these numbers increase, sometimes drastically.

Now, some of you will argue that the bigger you bet, the easier it is to have a big payoff. While that statement is true, it is also misleading. Here are the chances of doubling your buy-in based on the number of units at your disposal: for 20 units the chances of doubling are 7.39%, for 10 units the chances of doubling are 35.84%, and for 4 units the chances of doubling are 49.23%. You will notice that even though the percentages go up, they do not increase as quickly as the probability of losing your buy-in. This makes the additional risk outweigh the potential benefits.

To make things worse, these percentages only apply if you are disciplined enough to double your money and immediately walk away from the table. If you continue to play past this point the chances that you leave with twice what you had go down.

You can make your own decisions about risk and reward, but my recommendation is to lower your average bet until you are playing with at least 20 units, even if you have to find a casino with lower limits.

Alan Vaughn has played high stakes blackjack for several years in casinos all across the US. He recently moved to Denver where he teaches blackjack to players of all skill levels. For questions, comments, or information on lessons please email denver21school@yahoo.com.